Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 3.522384 4.217380 4.992076 5.916510 6.986304 8.181996 9.616020
2025-04-13 2.354639 3.233860 4.330986 5.786064 7.648766 9.935442 12.934662
2025-04-20 1.846326 2.848279 4.221593 6.205322 8.954349 12.580304 17.665266
2025-04-27 1.440244 2.467754 3.998589 6.379825 9.909076 14.849911 22.167095
2025-05-04 1.173160 2.208828 3.869946 6.624977 10.947957 17.308364 27.159490
2025-05-11 0.930500 1.919358 3.621090 6.618151 11.574320 19.202168 31.499320
2025-05-18 0.714642 1.615463 3.277497 6.380415 11.775422 20.438283 34.934595
2025-05-25 0.541820 1.342804 2.926117 6.054530 11.761182 21.298725 37.824224
2025-06-01 0.437129 1.178859 2.739492 5.982804 12.153421 22.830525 41.891678
2025-06-08 0.354349 1.038632 2.568520 5.905452 12.511786 24.319528 45.990665
2025-06-15 0.319046 1.001401 2.604010 6.237487 13.660810 27.270151 52.791128
2025-06-22 0.270093 0.914513 2.511851 6.288023 14.266734 29.293409 58.117731
2025-06-29 0.224742 0.825279 2.401069 6.292240 14.803851 31.280984 63.621870
2025-07-06 0.185556 0.740743 2.284223 6.265589 15.278390 33.202631 69.179663
2025-07-13 0.174601 0.741278 2.384425 6.758052 16.903785 37.469561 79.402742
2025-07-20 0.153450 0.700415 2.365941 6.962148 17.925509 40.633758 87.762874
2025-07-27 0.137342 0.671457 2.374126 7.232675 19.122141 44.238311 97.209132
2025-08-03 0.115525 0.612012 2.280696 7.227520 19.688295 46.599734 104.384412
2025-08-10 0.091450 0.531849 2.104384 6.971597 19.634899 47.662830 109.047768
2025-08-17 0.070229 0.452119 1.907012 6.619795 19.302368 48.094745 112.450760
2025-08-24 0.057876 0.406930 1.812286 6.542375 19.634579 49.987173 118.974897
2025-08-31 0.047583 0.366016 1.721172 6.458801 19.939006 51.837117 125.523543
2025-09-07 0.044514 0.363548 1.771664 6.817635 21.433601 56.476817 138.273228